Monday, 30 November 2015

Sunday, 22 November 2015

Auto index : setting up for outperformance ?

So far this year the Auto index has been flat and outperformed many other indices in terms of price performance. Looking at the ratio charts, it looks like the Auto space could be setting up for its next leg of outperformance.  

The Auto/Nifty ratio chart is in all time high territory and above its 40 week moving average.  Even against various indices the Auto/sector ratio charts are above their 40 week MA’s indicating outperformance against many indices.


So, the ratio charts are giving an indication that maybe the Auto space would be an outperformer in the year 2016, although from an absolute returns  perspective, would like to see the Auto index itself sustaining above its 40 week moving average.












Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 22th Nov 2015.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model



Monday, 9 November 2015

Technicals for week ending – 8th November 2015

Nifty weekly

As I write this, the SGX Nifty is tanking and the Nifty is about to open deep in the red. I have no clue what the markets will do this week or next but from a longer term the trend still seems to be down. Now I hate writing “as mentioned before” but yeah can’t help it for now. We still have a dominant down-trend line on the Nifty and its major weightage sector – Bank Nifty. To add more pain to the down-trend line, we have a downward sloping 40 week MA.

Speaking of the broader market – the Nifty 100,200 & 500 have similar structures to the Nifty and Bank-Nifty. Hence, this tells me that the broader market too is showing a down-trend at the moment and price improvement above the trend-line and a flattening to upward sloping 40 week MA are the triggers that I am looking at for the broader trend.


The Nifty/Bond ratio was in Bonds since the start of the year ! 







Sunday, 8 November 2015

Monthly models update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as of Oct’15 ending.

I first wrote about these here:

Buy & Rotate model has been in Bonds since 30 April 2015
10 SMA model has been in Bonds since 31 August 2015


Data & charts for Buy & Rotate model: 





Data & charts for 10 SMA model:



Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 8th Nov 2015.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model



Monday, 2 November 2015