Long-term index trend & momentum: February 2016

Sunday, 28 February 2016

Technicals for week ending – 28th February 2016.

Nifty Weekly

Still, the primary longer term trend still remains down for me as the Nifty index is below its 40 week moving average. On the weekly charts, the breadth remains negative as all 9 broader indices and 10 sector indices remain below their 40 week moving average. The weekly relative strength charts (http://goo.gl/3MmshX) saw a deterioration across the broader indices as the RS ratios are not holding up well relative to the Nifty, indicating that the selling is spreading to the broader indices. The Nifty/bond ratio is still indicating strength in bonds since a long time now.

On a shorter time-frame the Bank-Nifty is close to important supports around 13,300 which is the previous life time highs the index made in years 2011 & 2013. Odds favor a bounce from these levels and given the higher weight-age of banks in the Nifty, this could lead to an uptick in the Nifty as well.

Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 28^th Feb 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model

Sunday, 14 February 2016

Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 14^th Feb 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model

Sunday, 7 February 2016

When the broader indices also < 40 week MA..

Technicals for week ending – 7th February 2016.

Nifty Weekly

Still, the primary longer term trend still remains down for me as the Nifty index is below its 40 week moving average. On the weekly charts, the Nifty broke its support of around 7600 a month ago and closed below the blue shaded region for 4 weeks in a row now. Similar pattern was seen on the Bank Nifty which has the highest weightage in the Nifty index. For a longer term bull trend to begin shaping up, would like to see the Nifty and the Banking index close and sustain above the resistance zones (blue shaded regions). Also, the weekly relative strength charts (http://goo.gl/3MmshX) are seeing a deterioration across the broader as well as sector indices, only the defensive FMCG, IT & Pharma indices RS ratios are holding up relative to the Nifty, indicating that the selling is spreading to the broader indices now.

The Nifty/bond ratio is still in bonds since a long time now.