Pharma in Trouble?

A look at the ratio of the Pharma Index divided other Indices shows that the Pharma index might be a huge under-performer going forward. The ratio is below its 40 week moving average for all sectors and the broader Nifty and 10 year bond index too. 

Technicals for week ending – 24th April 2016.

Nifty Weekly

Still continue with the consolidation theme, but slightly leaning to the bearish side TILL we do not close above 8k on the Nifty index.

Risks/Observations:

On the weekly chart the difference between the Open & Close was flat compared to the high & low which is showing some indecision.

On the daily chart it is clearly visible that the 8k zone on Nifty has been visited several times in the past and has acted as Support & Resistance. A break above 8k would be a positive but till then better to wait it out.

The dollar index and USD-INR pair bounced off support zones in the last week – trends in the currency space could play a big role in the Equity outlook.

On the VIX projected range chart we have closed above the upper boundary and max high looks to be in the area near 8k. (We also have a massive build-up in the 8k strike call option since the start of this series!)

Seeing some improvement in the Nifty/Bond ratio chart as it is sustaining above its 10 week moving average but momentum yet to confirm.

The most bullish data point looks to be the Sectoral & Broader indices that are trading above their respective 40 week moving averages.

Auto, Energy, Metal & Realty indices are the potential outperformers as they are performing better than the Nifty & the 10 Year Bond Index (Refer Weekly Relative Strength Charts).

To conclude – the weight of the evidence suggests a stance to the neutral to bearish side, while the most important point to look for will be if we can breakout above 8k.

Nifty weekly chart :

Nifty Daily chart :

US Dollar Index & USD-INR pair :

Nifty VIX projected range chart :

Nifty/10 year bond ratio chart :

Indices above 40 week moving average :

Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 24^th April 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model

Short term momentum model continues to be in Metals & Realty

Technicals for week ending – 17th April 2016.

Nifty Weekly

The bullish bias mentioned last time worked out well. But for now looks like we may be in for a consolidation near here.

Risks:

The index is placed at a down sloping trend-line and a down sloping 40 week moving average.

Nifty closed above the March highs but Bank-Nifty did not. This is the big boy and we need to see some participation here!

Mid & Small cap’s also closed above march highs but cooled off in the last 1 hour of trading.

On the weekly chart – Bank Nifty is yet to close above the 40 week moving average – in the following weeks will need to see a lot of momentum on Nifty & Bank-Nifty to power through trend line resistances.

On the VIX projected range chart we have closed above the upper boundary and max high looks to be in the area near 8k. (We also have a massive build-up in the 8k strike call option since the start of this series!)

Seeing some improvement in the Nifty/Bond ratio chart as it is sustaining above its 10 week moving average but momentum yet to confirm.

Auto, FMCG, Energy, Metal & Realty indices are above their respective 40 week moving averages.

Nifty weekly chart :

Bank Nifty weekly chart :

Nifty & Bank-Nifty Daily chart :

Nifty VIX projected range chart :

Nifty/10 year bond ratio chart :

Indices above 40 week moving average :

Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 17^th April 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model

Technicals for week ending – 03rd April 2016.

Nifty Weekly

After moving past the prior resistance zone near 7600, the Nifty index seems to be stuck in a narrow range. As you can see in the Nifty weekly chart below, few things stand out:

1.       The index is placed below a down sloping trend-line and a down sloping 40 week moving average.

2.       Immediate support zone seems to be in the 7600 area which are the lows of Sep’15 and Dec’15.

Whether we break past these zones or not? – well, we will have to see that post the RBI monetary policy meet. BUT there is some evidence which is pointing to a bullish bias over the next 1-2 weeks and possibly further.

1.       On the weekly chart – Bank Nifty resistance zone is much higher up which gives it further room on the upside.

2.       On the daily chart the Nifty is stuck between 7800 & 7600. RSI is sustaining well over 50 for quite some time now. Hence a positive bias.

3.       On the VIX projected range chart we have closed above the upper boundary and max high looks to be in the area near 8k. (We also have a massive build-up in the 8k strike call option at the start of this series! )

4.       Seeing some improvement in the Nifty/Bond ratio chart as it is sustaining above its 10 week moving average.

5.       Auto, FMCG, Energy & Metal indices are above their respective 40 week moving average.

  

Nifty weekly chart :

Bank Nifty weekly chart :

Nifty Daily chart :

Nifty VIX projected range chart :

Nifty/10 year bond ratio chart :

Indices above 40 week moving average :

Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 03^rd April 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model

Auto index is the new entrant this week

Monthly models update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as of Mar’16 ending.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

Buy & Rotate model has been in Bonds since 30 April 2015

10 SMA model has been in Bonds since 31 August 2015

Data & charts for Buy & Rotate model: 

Data & charts for 10 SMA model: