Energy Index – Potential Outperformer ?

I know, I know – the Energy Index has been the most frustrating index and has returned virtually nothing since mid-2009. BUT at the moment this index has popped up in 2^nd place on the short-term momentum model as well as the longer-term ratio charts. Anyways, before we look at all the ratio charts, just a refresher –a rising ratio means that the numerator is outperforming the denominator

Ok, so dividing the Energy Index by the benchmark Nifty and other sector indices we can see that in a lot of cases the ratio was flattish from mid-2015 onwards and started to breakout somewhere around the middle of 2016. The ratio is above its 40-week moving average for all sectors except Metals. A rising ratio against most indices suggests that Energy could be a outperformer over the longer term and worth keeping on the watch list – Metals popped up earlier at rank 1 for short term momentum and on the ratio charts but it is too late to write about that now J

Note – similar situations developed in the Auto & Pharma indices and I wrote about them here:

http://indiasectortechnicals.blogspot.in/2015/11/auto-index-setting-up-for-outperformance.html

http://indiasectortechnicals.blogspot.in/2016/04/pharma-in-trouble.html

Will this index continue to frustrate or finally move ?..well..lets see how this plays out J

Technicals for week ending – 25th November 2016.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 Pinbar at support + a stochastics buy signal from an oversold reading.

Chart 2 All broader indices/bond ratio below 40-week moving average

Chart 3 Average & Median distance of sector indices from their 52 week closing highs.

Chart 4 Many sector & broader Indices below their 40-week moving average

Chart 5 In terms of intermarket strength Metals still on top, have a look at the Energy index! 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 25^th November 2016.

Technicals for week ending – 11th November 2016.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just my observations and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Wow ! what a bombshell we got this week. Trump + the currency news. Well that leaves a lot of charts damaged -

Chart 1 PE ratio still above 20

Chart 2 Nifty/Bond ratio below its 40 week moving average & momentum wise too - bonds are now outperforming

Chart 3 Avg & Median distance of sector indices from their 52 week closing highs took a beating

Chart 4 Many sector Indices below their 40 week moving average

Chart 5 In terms of intermarket strength Realty got beaten down from the top spot to near bottom within a week ! 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short term momentum model for the week ending 11^th November 2016.

Technicals for week ending – 4th November 2016.

Since we have an important event coming up so no point predicting. Just keeping this one short & will look at other data points next week. Though Nifty has broken past 1st support zone of 8500-8600 we still have the highest weighted sector in Nifty i.e. the Bank-Nifty right at support and the broader Nifty 500 is also right at supports.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short term momentum model for the week ending 04^th November 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model