Technicals for week ending – 15th December 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 No change in short term risks – a close below the 10080-10120 band and inability to move above would indicate weakness. Basic super-trend and 40-week MA are in buy mode and above the 9700 zones. I can’t predict worth a damn; my exit point will be a weekly close below the 40-week MA.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Energy.

Chart 4 Pharma index is below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -4% & -2.1%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is flat

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 15^th December 2017.

Technicals for week ending – 8th December 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 SAVED AGAIN from a close below the support band. No change in short term risks – a close below the 10080-10120 band and inability to move above would indicate weakness. Basic super-trend and 40-week MA are in buy mode and above the 9700 zones. I can’t predict worth a damn; my exit point will be a weekly close below the 40-week MA.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Energy.

Chart 4 Pharma index is below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -4% & -2.4%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is flat

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 8^th December 2017.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end November’17.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index in end January 2017

The Momentum model switched to Nifty total returns index in end February 2017

Stats:

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 1^st December 2017.