Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end June’18.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

  

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index in end April 2018

The Momentum model is still invested in Nifty total returns index since end February 2017

Stats:

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 29^th June 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

Technicals for week ending – 22nd June 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is long & both monthly models are also long. Check here. Bonds are in a downtrend as the 10 year TRI is below its 40 week MA and the second chart highlights different scenarios of Nifty and Bonds with respect to their 40 week MA. Currently we are in the orange scenario and as per history it is a flat to bullish period.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, FMCG & Banks. With Realty and Metals at the bottom.

Chart 4 Indecisiveness in other indices as about half are over their 40 week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -9.5% & -6.9%.

Chart 6 CLI flows in Index futures segment is positive and been holding positive for few months now.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 22^nd June 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

Technicals for week ending – 15th June 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is long & both monthly models are also long. Check here. Bonds are in a downtrend as the 10 year TRI is below its 40 week MA and the second chart highlights different scenarios of Nifty and Bonds with respect to their 40 week MA. Currently we are in the orange scenario and as per history it is a flat to bullish period.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, FMCG & Banks. With Realty and Infra at the bottom.

Chart 4 Majority of indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -8.7% & -7.3%.

Chart 6 CLI flows in Index futures segment is positive and been holding positive for few month now.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 15^th June 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end May’18.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index inn end April 2018

The Momentum model is still invested in Nifty total returns index since end February 2017

Stats: