Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Chart 1. Longer term trend model
based on weekly prices is long & I am allocated to Niftybees ETF. Bonds are
now in an uptrend as the 10 year TRI is above its 40 week MA and the second
chart highlights different scenarios of Nifty and Bonds with respect to their
40 week MA. Currently we are in the blue scenario and as per history it is a bullish
period till the signal lasts.
Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA &
momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for
Nifty vs bonds.
Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, FMCG
& Banks. With Realty and Metals at the bottom.
Chart
4 Indecisiveness in other indices as less than half are over their 40
week MA.
Chart
5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is
at -9.5% & -6.9%.
Chart
6 CLI & FII flows in Index futures segment is positive and been holding
positive for few months now.
