Technicals for week ending – 04th January 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is sitting in cash. I am holding liquidbees ETF now.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Bond index, indicating longer term outperformance for bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in FMCG, Banks & Infra. With Auto and Metals at the bottom.

Chart 4 Damage in other indices as most are below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -19% & -17%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 04^th January 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end December’18.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty Total returns index in end November 2018

The Momentum model switched to S&P India 10 Yr Bond index in end October 2018

NO – This does NOT outperform every year – stop asking that!!

Stats: