Key Risks

Before we start, full disclosure – that I follow a weekly model like a robot, it is currently in buy mode. Hence, the below observations are just somethings that caught my eye and thought to share.

First up we have the Nifty index chart with Bollinger bands set to 200 day and 2 standard deviations. The green arrows were days when the close was above the upper band. Not many instances since 2009 but except for the 2014 election rally and the breakout in 2017 all other occurrences saw lacklustre returns in the following months.

Next, let’s look at the relative strength of the broader indices vs. the 10-year bond index. While it is very clear that broader markets are under performing Nifty…but they are under performing bonds as well. As we can see from the below charts, except the Nifty 500/ Bonds relative strength chart, all other ratios are below their respective 40 week moving averages and the averages are trending down for all ratios. Again, not many instances in the past but such scenarios occurred during periods of general equity weakness.

Lastly, we track all the major indices if they are above or below their own 40 week moving average. From the below chart we can see general equity strength when most (let’s say 7) of the broader & sector indices are above their moving average. As of today, we are middling but Nifty seems to be on its way to the moon LOL.

Technicals for week ending – 26th April 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Energy. With Auto and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader as well as sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -11.2% & -9.8%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 26^th April 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 19th April 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favors Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Energy. With Auto and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader as well as sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -11.2% & -9.8%. 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 19^th April 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 12th April 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Energy. With Auto and Metals at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader as well as sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -12% & -11.1%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 12^th April 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 5th April 2019

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Energy. With Auto and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA. But sector indices are faltering.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -12% & -11.1%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 5^th April 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.