Weekly Analysis – 13th September 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in buy mode and I am in Nifty-bees. Bond strategy is also in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Allocation and other stats/details in the chart below.

Note: Till March/April for the equities component I was using 2 different strategies but decided to stick to just 1 later on. Due to that the drawdown is a bit larger than if I was just using 1 equities strategy from the start.

For 1^st chart If Green line under the Nifty and Bond Indices charts is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in Autos, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 9 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 8 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

 

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -12% and -5%.

 

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 13^th September 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

 

 

 

 

Weekly Analysis – 06th September 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in buy mode and I am in Nifty-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund.

If Green line in the first chart is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in Autos, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 9 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 8 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -14% and -3%.

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 06^th September 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

 

Weekly Analysis – 23rd August 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Just amazed at this rally off the lows. Even the other data points mentioned in the later charts have all turned super bullish. Just unbelievable. On the strategy front, post June have been feeling dumb since Nifty just overtook and now, Bonds - the saviour from earlier has become a drag. Have to remind myself that in no way is this combination going to always beat the benchmark and that is not the goal. The goal was to keep portfolio drawdowns at a level that was personally acceptable and it did just that when Nifty ETF experienced its max drawdown. Now, another side of following these long term trend strategies – The Nifty strategy is close to triggering a buy here. LOL!

If Green line in the first chart is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in Metals, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 9 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 8 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -11% and -5%.

 

  

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 23^rd August 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

  

Weekly Analysis – 14th August 2020

Weekly Analysis – 14^th August 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -12.6% and current drawdown is 14.9% compared to Nifty ETF return of -5.6% with a current drawdown of 9%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in Energy, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 9 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 7 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -14% and -7.5%.

 

  

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 16^nd August 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

 

Weekly Analysis – 02nd August 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -12.36% and current drawdown is 14.66% compared to Nifty ETF return of -6.6% with a current drawdown of 10%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term out-performance of Bonds vs Nifty.

 

Chart 3 Longer term inter-market strength is in Energy, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

 

Chart 4 8 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 6 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

 

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -16% and -10%.

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 02^nd August 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

 

 

 

 

Weekly Analysis – 19th July 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Man, the Nifty has just overtaken the strategy completely and in such a short time-frame!

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -12.42% and current drawdown is 14.71% compared to Nifty ETF return of -8.34% with a current drawdown of 11.72%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 7 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 6 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -17% and -12%.

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 19^th July 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

 

 

Weekly Analysis – 12th July 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -12.36% and current drawdown is 14.66% compared to Nifty ETF return of -9.47% with a current drawdown of 12.81%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term out-performance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom. 

Chart 4 4 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 5 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -18% and -13%.