Weekly Analysis – 24th January 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy 1 & 2 based on Nifty spot data are in buy signals and I am holding Niftybees. Bond strategy also is in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Green line is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Nifty, both indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Auto, Realty & Infra. With Media and Energy at the bottom.

Chart 4 9 out of 10 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 9 sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA. Forward returns on Nifty have generally been positive at these readings.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -6.9% & -4.5%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 24^th January 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Weekly Analysis – 17th January 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy 1 & 2 based on Nifty spot data remain long and I am holding Niftybees. Bond strategy also is in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Green line is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Nifty, both indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Auto, Realty & Metals. With Pharma and Energy at the bottom.

Chart 4 9 out of 10 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 9 sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA. Forward returns on Nifty have generally been positive at these readings.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -6.3% & -3.1%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 17^th January 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Weekly Analysis – 10th January 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy 1 & 2 based on Nifty spot data remain long and I am holding Niftybees. Bond strategy also is in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Green line is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Nifty, both indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Banks, Realty & Metals. With Pharma and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 8 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 9 of the sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA. Forward returns on Nifty have generally been positive at these readings.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -7.9% & -5.1%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 10^th January 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Weekly Analysis – 3rd January 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy 1 & 2 based on Nifty spot data remain long and I am holding Niftybees. Bond strategy also is in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Green line is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Nifty, both indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Banks, Realty & Metals. With Pharma and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 8 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 9 of the sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA. Forward returns on Nifty have generally been positive at these readings.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -8.2% & -5.7%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 03^rd January 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end Dec’19.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty Total Returns index in end Sep 2019

The Momentum model switched to Bond Total Returns index in end Oct 2019

Stats: