Weekly Analysis – 19th July 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Man, the Nifty has just overtaken the strategy completely and in such a short time-frame!

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -12.42% and current drawdown is 14.71% compared to Nifty ETF return of -8.34% with a current drawdown of 11.72%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 7 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 6 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -17% and -12%.

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 19^th July 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

 

 

Weekly Analysis – 12th July 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -12.36% and current drawdown is 14.66% compared to Nifty ETF return of -9.47% with a current drawdown of 12.81%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term out-performance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom. 

Chart 4 4 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 5 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -18% and -13%.

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 12^th July 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.