Updating the
short-term momentum model for the week ending 10th
February 2017.
Sunday, 12 February 2017
Saturday, 4 February 2017
Technicals for week ending – 5th February 2017.
Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Bollocks! missed it! … what a
difference the last week of Jan made and now most of the things flip to the
other side.
Observations (Charts below)
1
– I know I am sounding like a broken record but well, Nifty PE ratio now hits
23 and Nifty vs Earnings (indexed) is now in a warning zone as after hitting
100% this has led to corrections (previous tops were in the 107-110% range). Nonetheless.
Momentum rules the day !
2
– On the monthly update (http://indiasectortechnicals.blogspot.ae/2017/02/monthly-update.html)
the moving average based system flipped to buy Nifty while the momentum based
rule is still in bonds so there is a 50/50 split there.
3
– On the weekly, we are above the 40-week moving average & closed above
weekly resistance
4
– The Nifty/Bond ratio for the total return indices has inched up towards its
40-week moving average.
5
– Metals & Energy are still leading in terms of the relative strength ratio
scan.
6
– Nifty Alpha Index is at an all-time high along with Mid & Small cap
indices – Momentum on the buy side.
Chart 1
Chart
2
Chart
3
Chart
4
Chart
5
Sector Momentum Update
Updating the
short-term momentum model for the week ending 3nd
February 2017.
Wednesday, 1 February 2017
Monthly Update
Updated
figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end January’17.
I
first wrote about these here:
The
moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index while the momentum
model is still in bonds.
Sunday, 22 January 2017
Technicals for week ending – 22nd January 2017.
Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Data points suggest that this is
not a favourable environment for equities and does not warrant fresh allocation
at these elevated valuation levels. Risks to this are that there could be a
momentum fuelled blow-off rally but I guess the probability of that happening
is low. Data suggests that the higher
probability scenario seems that we may linger here or correct.
Observations (Charts below)
1
– Nifty PE ratio is a tad over 22 and going by history this zone above 22 has always
led to corrections within a 6 month to a 1 year time-frame.
2
– Buy & exit rules based on weekly data still are in exit mode. The
Nifty index is struggling at its 40-week moving average and as per our monthly
models update for December end, the rules suggest a positioning in bonds. – so,
all in all – risk off for now.
3
– The Nifty/Bond ratio for the total return indices is below its 40-week moving
average suggesting that over the longer-term bonds may outperform Nifty.
4
– Metals & Energy are still leading in terms of the relative strength ratio
scan and have been the clear leaders of this rally BUT are now at multiyear
resistances. FMCG is now at rank 4 suggesting a shift to defensive's is building
up.
5
– The FMCG/Nifty ratio is now above its 40-week MA and testing its upper range –
seems to be a shift to defensive's which in turn supports the cautious view.
Chart 1
Chart
2
Chart
3
Chart
4
Chart
5
Sector Momentum Update
Updating the short-term momentum
model for the week ending 22nd January 2017.
Sunday, 15 January 2017
Sector Momentum Update
Updating the
short-term momentum model for the week ending 15th
January 2017.
Monthly Update
Updated
figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end December’16.
I
first wrote about these here:
The
moving average model & the momentum model, both moved to bonds.
Stats:
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