Technicals for week ending – 2nd June 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 Nifty is in all time high territory and in this zone there is nothing to the left side of the chart so no point trying to estimate any resistance zones here. For the longer term, major support is still the previous all time high zone of 8900-9000 and now higher support looks to be the 9250-9280 area as that zone is the highs of the consolidation after the breakout.

Chart 2 Nifty & all indices except Pharma are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 3 Nifty total returns-Bond ratio is above its 40-week MA.

Chart 4 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG & Realty. Had published a write up on Auto underperforming and Energy outperforming – well as per the matrix those seem to have reversed now. FMCG in on the top spot now – to be honest – strange to see FMCG ranking higher in relative terms when Nifty is at all-time highs. Possible warning sign?

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52 week closing highs is at -5.7% & -4.8%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 02^nd June 2017.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end May’17.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index end January 2017

The Momentum model switched to Nifty total returns index end February 2017

Stats:

Technicals for week ending – 14th May 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 Nifty support zone for longer time frame still is at 8900-9000 – which is also a gap zone. Nifty, Bank-Nifty, Mid & Small cap Indices are in all time high territory so no point trying to predict a resistance level here. As of now we are above the 40-week moving average and support zone.

Chart 2 Nifty & all indices except Pharma are above their 40-week MA. IT index closed above its 40-week MA this week

Chart 3 Nifty total returns-Bond ratio is above its 40-week MA.

Chart 4 Longer term intermarket strength is Realty & Energy.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52 week closing highs is at -4% & -1.7%. Drop mainly caused by Metals, IT & Pharma.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 14^th May 2017.

Metals Index –Underperform ?

Metals Index –Underperform ?

Latest data set suggests that the Metals Index could see lacklustre performance compared to other sectoral indices. Not doing anything different, just following the process like we did for the previous write ups done below –

Auto Index –Underperform ?

Energy Index – Potential Outperformer ?

Auto index : setting up for outperformance ?

Pharma in Trouble?

Process: We are just dividing each sector index by one another and applying a moving average filter to check if the numerator is outperforming or underperforming. So, in this case just like the one’s above, the Metals Index is divided by all sector indices and if the ratio is above the 40-week moving average then the Metals index is outperforming and when the ratio charts are above or below the moving average filter against majority of Indices then that becomes very important as it is signalling a shift in sector preferences.

This is just a probability thing and if the ratio’s start to improve then obviously, that will signal a change and the Metals Index will be back in favour.

Anyways, below are the ratio charts and you can see that the Metals/sector ratios are below their respective moving average filter for all except the Metals/Pharma & Metals/IT ratios as Pharma & IT have been falling for long.

Do keep in mind that since these are weekly charts & data so this is analysis is more longer term oriented.

Technicals for week ending – 7th May 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 Nifty support zone for longer time frame comes in at 8900-9000 – which is also a gap zone. Nifty, Bank-Nifty, Mid & Small cap Indices are in all time high territory so no point trying to predict a resistance level here. As of now we are above the 40-week moving average and support zone. The most painful thing for long term holders would be a break of the support zone in quick time.

Chart 2 Nifty & all indices except IT & Pharma are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 3 Nifty-Bond ratio is above its 40-week MA.

Chart 4 Longer term intermarket strength has rotated to Banks & Realty. Metals have lost a lot of relative strength & have dropped in rank quite quickly.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52 week closing highs is at -5.2% & -2.8%. Drop mainly caused by Metals, IT & Pharma.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 7^th May 2017.