Monday, 7 December 2015

Technicals for week ending – 6th December 2015.

Nifty weekly

Going through the weekly charts, for a longer term uptrend - the Nifty and Bank-Nifty still have to overcome their downward sloping trend-lines and a downward sloping 40 week moving average. The Nifty 100, 200 & 500 indices still remain below their 40 week MA and are exhibiting patterns similar to the Nifty. However, the relative strength ratio of these indices is showing something interesting. All throughout this downtrend the RS ratios of these broader market indices have not deteriorated and in fact moved up – indicating that bulk of the selling has been restricted to the Nifty 50 basket. Even the Midcap and Small cap RS ratios have been inching higher.

On the fundamental side, as per NSE data looks like earnings have picked up & earlier I had tweeted about a rare occurrence in the Nifty which makes me think that we are near a short term bottom in the index (charts below).

Overall, looks like we could be near a bottom or maybe the Nifty index has bottomed out since the broader-market RS ratios are healthy, we are seeing an uptick in earnings and from the derivatives space the VIX index is calm and not indicative of any panic in the market. On a personal note, I would still like to see the index overcome its 40 week MA for a confirmation of a longer term uptrend. Till then, good to keep the above points in mind and monitor.


Chart : Nifty & Bank-Nifty – The battle against resistance and the 40 week MA




 Charts : Broader market RS ratios still trending higher !







Charts : A rare occurrence & earnings improvement





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