Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Broader
theme - As the Index PE ratio is still around 21, the most likely scenario over
the longer term is either we consolidate around these levels or fall further
while a sharp run up will put us in mania territory. Either ways the end result
for all 3 scenarios doesn’t warrant putting more money to work around here.
Since
this will be the last post for 2016, wishing you all a merry Christmas and a
happy new year! Also, just focusing on the most basic charts J
Observations (Charts below)
1
– The benchmark Nifty index is struggling to close above its 40-week moving
average and is stuck between intermediate term support and resistance zones.
2
– The Nifty/Bond ratio for the total return indices is below its 40-week moving
average suggesting that over the longer-term bonds may outperform Nifty.
3
– Till last week 8 of the 9 broader indices were holding above their 40-week MA
but now only 4 of the broader indices are above that moving average!
Chart 1
Chart
2
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