Technicals for week ending – 18th August 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 Nothing much to add here. 9700-10,100 still remains the broad range. If you look under the surface (2^nd chart below - data not the latest but the trend is clearly visible for now.) the number of Nifty 500 stocks that have fallen more than 20% from their 52 week high has been steadily increasing. On the personal front, I closed some Nifty bees positions this week to balance out the downside risk.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in Realty & Energy.

Chart 4 Pharma & Media are below their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52 week closing is at -6.5% & -3%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is net long but a declining trend.