Technicals for week ending – 29th September 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 STILL Nothing much to add here. 9700-10,100 remains the broad range and we closed the week above 9700. As mentioned last week, the Bollinger bandwidth contracted further – my sense is it might take a month or two for it to rise and for Nifty to break the range. On longer term basis I am biased towards the long side as we are above a rising 40 week moving average. First signs of worry will be a break of 9700 – we have now had two fast and violent moves towards 9700. Also, keep an eye on stocks trading more than 20% off their 52 week highs (chart below)

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Metals. They are a bit slow to signal so keep in mind the general conditions.

Chart 4 Pharma &Media indices are below their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -7.3% & -4.8%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment has gone negative for the first time this year.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end September’17.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index in end January 2017

The Momentum model switched to Nifty total returns index in end February 2017

Stats: 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 29^th September 2017.

Technicals for week ending – 22nd September 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 STILL Nothing much to add here. 9700-10,100 remains the broad range. We did make an attempt higher but failed, so now back in the range. 9700 still remains the biggest level as it is resistance from the early June highs and despite a big red weekly bar in early August the bears could not break through 9700. We now have a Bollinger bandwidth compression (as if we are not frustrated with the tight range already !)  as the reading now stands at 8.47% The green arrows indicate previous zones when the reading fell below 10%. I guess we can now play for a range break within two months.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Metals. They are a bit slow to signal so keep in mind the general conditions.

Chart 4 Pharma Index is below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52 week closing is at -6.1% & -4.7%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is net long but a declining trend.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 22^nd September 2017.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 15^th September 2017.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 08^th September 2017.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end August’17.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index in end January 2017

The Momentum model switched to Nifty total returns index in end February 2017

Stats: