Technicals for week ending – 22nd September 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 STILL Nothing much to add here. 9700-10,100 remains the broad range. We did make an attempt higher but failed, so now back in the range. 9700 still remains the biggest level as it is resistance from the early June highs and despite a big red weekly bar in early August the bears could not break through 9700. We now have a Bollinger bandwidth compression (as if we are not frustrated with the tight range already !)  as the reading now stands at 8.47% The green arrows indicate previous zones when the reading fell below 10%. I guess we can now play for a range break within two months.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Metals. They are a bit slow to signal so keep in mind the general conditions.

Chart 4 Pharma Index is below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52 week closing is at -6.1% & -4.7%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is net long but a declining trend.