Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assesment of the positives and negatives from
a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Chart 1. Longer term trend model
based on weekly prices is long, (I uploaded an image of its past signals on
twitter). Hence, I am holding on to my ETF. As for discretionary side, we have had 5 up weeks and now sitting at the unfilled gap resistance and near some "magical" trend line ;)
Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA &
momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for
Nifty vs bonds.
Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Media
& FMCG. With Banking, Metals and Pharma at the bottom.
Chart
4 Majority
of indices are above their 40-week MA.
Chart
5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is
at -6.7% & -7.1%.
Chart
6 FII flows in Index futures segment is negative.
Karan,
ReplyDeleteTime to be extra cautious in May?
See MSCI EM Asia Index on 200 DMA support, USDINR staring at 69, Crude looking up, US and India Bond yield ready for uptrend. I am actually scared.
No clue sir .... my job is to execute like a robot, signal is long so I am long :)
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