Technicals for week ending – 10th August 2018.

Technicals for week ending – 10^th August 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is long & I am allocated to Niftybees ETF. Bonds are now in an uptrend as the 10 year TRI is above its 40 week MA and the second chart highlights different scenarios of Nifty and Bonds with respect to their 40 week MA. Currently we are in the blue scenario and as per history it is a bullish period till the signal lasts.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favors Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, FMCG & Energy. With Realty and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Indecisiveness in other indices as few sector indices are over their 40-week MA whereas most broader indices above that moving average.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -9.5% & -6.9%.

Chart 6 CLI & FII flows in Index futures segment is positive and been holding positive for few months now.