Technicals for week ending – 21st September 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is long & I am allocated to Niftybees ETF. Bonds flipped to a uptrend as the 10-year TRI is above its 40-week MA and the second chart highlights different scenarios of Nifty and Bonds with respect to their 40 week MA. Currently we are in the blue scenario and as per history past signals have shown positive returns.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Pharma & Energy. With Realty and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Damage in other indices as most are below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -12.6% & -10.7%.

Chart 6 CLI flows in Index futures segment is positive and been holding positive for few months now.