Technicals for week ending – 28th June 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is barely ABOVE its 40-week MA, BUT momentum has shifted to bonds – so mixed signals here. Also, the slope of the MA is pointing down.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Infra. With Pharma and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, while a lot of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -12% & -7%.

Monthly Update

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end June’19.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty Total Returns index in end June 2019

The Momentum model switched to Bond Total Returns index in end June 2019

NO – This does NOT outperform every year – stop asking that!!

Stats:

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 28^th June 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 21st June 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds. However, the slope of the MA is pointing down.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Infra. With Pharma and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, while a lot of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -13% & -7.2%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 21^st June 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 14th June 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

 

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds. However, the slope of the MA is pointing down.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Infra. With Pharma and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, while a lot of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -12.7% & -6.8%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 14^th June 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 7th June 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Energy. With Pharma and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, while a lot of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -12.3% & -5.9%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 7^th June 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 31st May 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees. I started investing as per this model just few months before the last election, I admit that it has underperformed buy & hold BUT I am not a buy and hold investor and using my discretion to move in and out I would have been much worse off than this simple model. Seen 2 elections, demonetization and a bunch of bad news over the years but still managed to stick to my buy and sell signals.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & Energy. With Pharma and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, while a lot of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -11.5% & -6.1%.

Monthly Update

 Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end May’19.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty Total Returns index in end March 2019

The Momentum model switched to Nifty Total Returns index in end March 2019

NO – This does NOT outperform every year – stop asking that!!

Stats:

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 31^st May 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.