Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Chart 1. Longer term trend model
based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees. I started
investing as per this model just few months before the last election, I admit
that it has underperformed buy & hold BUT I am not a buy and hold investor
and using my discretion to move in and out I would have been much worse off
than this simple model. Seen 2 elections, demonetization and a bunch of bad
news over the years but still managed to stick to my buy and sell signals.
Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA &
momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty
vs Bonds.
Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks
& Energy. With Pharma and Media at the bottom.
Chart
4 Most of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA,
while a lot of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.
Chart
5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is
at -11.5% & -6.1%.
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