Weekly Analysis – 30th August 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in sell mode and I am holding Liquidbees at the moment.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, IT & FMCG. With Metals and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 All of the broader indices are below their respective 40-week MA, and all except 2 of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -18% & -13%.

Monthly Update for the equity-bond rotation models

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end Aug’19.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index 

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty Total Returns index in end July 2019

The Momentum model switched to Bond Total Returns index in end June 2019

NO – This does NOT outperform every year – stop asking that!!

Stats:

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 30^th August 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 23rd August 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in sell mode and I am holding Liquidbees at the moment.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA, momentum has shifted to bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, IT & FMCG. With Metals and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 All of the broader indices are below their respective 40-week MA, and all except 1 of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -21% & -14%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 23^rd August 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 16th August 2019

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Writing in after a long time, longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in sell mode and I am holding Liquidbees at the moment. The trigger came in at the weekly close on 2^nd August and I just hit the sell button without hesitation. Had a lot of I told you so moments during these last few weeks that said get out..but that’s the nature of it – Balidaan Dena Hoga :P    

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA, momentum has shifted to bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & IT. With Metals and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 All of the broader indices are below their respective 40-week MA, and all except 1 of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -19% & -12%.

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 16^th August 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end July’19.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty Total Returns index in end July 2019

The Momentum model switched to Bond Total Returns index in end June 2019

NO – This does NOT outperform every year – stop asking that!!

Stats: