Technicals for week ending – 16th August 2019

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Writing in after a long time, longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in sell mode and I am holding Liquidbees at the moment. The trigger came in at the weekly close on 2^nd August and I just hit the sell button without hesitation. Had a lot of I told you so moments during these last few weeks that said get out..but that’s the nature of it – Balidaan Dena Hoga :P    

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA, momentum has shifted to bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & IT. With Metals and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 All of the broader indices are below their respective 40-week MA, and all except 1 of the sector indices are still below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -19% & -12%.