Weekly Analysis – 29th November 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy 1 & 2 based on Nifty spot data remain long and I am holding Niftybees. Bond strategy also is in buy mode and I am holding 10Y bond fund. These are new models that I started using and to add diversification to the mix.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Nifty, both indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds. Though the sample size maybe small but those runaway bull markets have happened with Nifty/Bond ratio above its MA and the slope of the MA also trending upwards.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Banks, Realty & Infra. With IT and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 8 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 6 of the sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -9% & -6.8%.