Weekly Analysis – 31st May 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

**Some charts below use moving averages. Now, the prices are far below these averages, so we face 2 choices:

Either we wait for price to catch up to the MA’s – then we might miss out on some solid gains.

Either the MA’s catch up to price – then we get saved from further losses or a frustrating range bound move.**

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -12.96% and current drawdown is 15.24% compared to Nifty ETF return of -19.75% with a current drawdown of 22.72%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, Infra & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 NONE of the broader indices is above their respective 40-week MA, and only 1 of the sector indices is above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -25.5% and -23.2%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 31^st May 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

 

 

 

A bullish thesis

Note: This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Summary: Recent performance of some broader market indices relative to Nifty is holding up well and price wise, Nifty seems near a zone that could be a potential bottom of a range that develops over the next 1 to 2 months.

Performance of broader indices such as Nifty Junior, Nifty 500 and Nifty Midcap are holding up pretty well. In some cases, the ratio has been performing better since before 2020. However, small caps are still not showing any signs like the other indices. Still, 3 out of 4 holding up well is not bad at all.

Price wise, the Nifty is near a support zone of 8850-8950 odd. This zone was prior resistance in 2015 and 2016. No zone is perfect, there is almost always some zig zag through it. Just below this zone we have 2 Fibonacci levels. I am not a regular user of fibo’s, just like to keep a tab on them – BUT, when a couple of levels from different time moves sort of line up then it warrants attention. I have considered retracements of the recent moves and they are big in magnitude as well –the drop from +12400 and then the rally off the march lows – both are recent, fast and the magnitude of the moves was greater than 20%.  The 23.6% retracement from the top and 50% retracement from the bottom align around the 8680 to 8700 zone.

To sum it up, we see broader markets performing better relative to the benchmark and multiple price zones just below in 8700-8900 range. Think that this could be a zone for some basing action for next 1-2 months. After all this, it is still a best guess.

Weekly Analysis – 24th May 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

**Some charts below use moving averages. Now, the prices are far below these averages, so we face 2 choices:

Either we wait for price to catch up to the MA’s – then we might miss out on some solid gains.

Either the MA’s catch up to price – then we get saved from further losses or a frustrating range bound move.**

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -13.05% and current drawdown is 15.33% compared to Nifty ETF return of -23.93% with a current drawdown of 26.74%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, Infra & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 NONE of the broader indices is above their respective 40-week MA, and only 1 of the sector indices is above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is around -29% each.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 24^th May 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Weekly Analysis – 17th May 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

**Some charts below use moving averages. Now, the prices are far below these averages, so we face 2 choices:

Either we wait for price to catch up to the MA’s – then we might miss out on some solid gains.

Either the MA’s catch up to price – then we get saved from further losses or a frustrating range bound move.**

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -13.25% and current drawdown is 15.53% compared to Nifty ETF return of -23.16% with a current drawdown of 26%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, Infra & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 NONE of the broader indices is above their respective 40-week MA, and only 1 of the sector indices is above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is around -29% each.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 17^th May 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Weekly Analysis – 10th May 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

**Some charts below use moving averages. Now, the prices are far below these averages, so we face 2 choices:

Either we wait for price to catch up to the MA’s – then we might miss out on some solid gains.

Either the MA’s catch up to price – then we get saved from further losses or a frustrating range bound move.**

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -13.45% and current drawdown is 15.72% compared to Nifty ETF return of -17.29% with a current drawdown of 25.09%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 NONE of the broader indices is above their respective 40-week MA, and only 1 of the sector indices is above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is around -30% each.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 10^th May 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Weekly Analysis – 03rd May 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

**Some charts below use moving averages. Now, the prices are far below these averages, so we face 2 choices:

Either we wait for price to catch up to the MA’s – then we might miss out on some solid gains.

Either the MA’s catch up to price – then we get saved from further losses or a frustrating range bound move.**

Chart 1. I ditched one of the Nifty strategies, had been thinking for a while that it was making things complicated for me, plus, it was not adding much benefit to the other Nifty strategy. To simplify things, I am now just using just 1 strategy applied to 2 different asset classes – Nifty (for equity) and a 10Y bond fund. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -14% and current drawdown is 16.23% compared to Nifty ETF return of -20% with a current drawdown of 20%.

  

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in FMCG, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 NONE of the broader indices is above their respective 40-week MA, and only 1 of the sector indices is above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is around -26% each.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 03^rd May 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.