Note:
This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just
data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term
point of view.
Summary: Recent performance
of some broader market indices relative to Nifty is holding up well and price
wise, Nifty seems near a zone that could be a potential bottom of a range that
develops over the next 1 to 2 months.
Performance of broader indices such as Nifty Junior, Nifty
500 and Nifty Midcap are holding up pretty well. In some cases, the ratio has
been performing better since before 2020. However, small caps are still not
showing any signs like the other indices. Still, 3 out of 4 holding up well is not
bad at all.
Price wise, the Nifty is near a support zone of 8850-8950
odd. This zone was prior resistance in 2015 and 2016. No zone is perfect,
there is almost always some zig zag through it. Just below this zone we have 2 Fibonacci
levels. I am not a regular user of fibo’s, just like to keep a tab on them – BUT, when a couple of
levels from different time moves sort of line up then it warrants attention. I
have considered retracements of the recent moves and they are big in magnitude
as well –the drop from +12400 and then the rally off the march lows – both are recent,
fast and the magnitude of the moves was greater than 20%. The 23.6% retracement from the top and 50% retracement
from the bottom align around the 8680 to 8700 zone.
To sum it up, we see broader markets performing better
relative to the benchmark and multiple price zones just below in 8700-8900
range. Think that this could be a zone for some basing action for next 1-2
months. After all this, it is still a best guess.