Weekly Analysis – 28th June 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in exit mode and I am in liquid-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. If Green line in charts below is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode. Portfolio return since 4^th November (go live) is -12.75% and current drawdown is 15% compared to Nifty ETF return of -12.74% with a current drawdown of 16%.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum has shifted to Bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds vs Nifty.

 

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in Energy, Infra & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

 

Chart 4 2 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 5 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

 

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -19% and -15%.