Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 04^th May 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end April’18.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index inn end April 2018

The Momentum model is still invested in Nifty total returns index since end February 2017

Stats:

Technicals for week ending – 27th April 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assesment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is long, (I uploaded an image of its past signals on twitter). Hence, I am holding on to my ETF. As for discretionary side, we have had 5 up weeks and now sitting at the unfilled gap resistance and near some "magical"  trend line ;) 

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Media & FMCG. With Banking, Metals and Pharma at the bottom.

Chart 4 Majority of indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -6.7% & -7.1%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is negative.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 27^th April 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

Technicals for week ending – 20th April 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assesment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is long, (I uploaded an image of its past signals on twitter). Hence, I am holding on to my ETF. As for the discretionary side, there is a lot of work needed to be done given that trendline and support zones (basically a sandwich here!) – PS: I don’t believe in trendlines and patterns much!

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Media & FMCG. With Banking, Energy and Pharma at the bottom.

Chart 4 Majority of indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -7.2% & -7.1%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is negative.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 20^th April 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

Technicals for week ending – 13th April 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assesment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. The ugly charts and data posted in the last few months turned around in the last few weeks & on 6^th my boring system switched to long, so riding the ETF. Seems like there was no point in posting those fancy subjective charts and data, LOL. Feeling better and better as I continue to monitor the system and execute like a robot. Past history shows just 1-3 trades a year, so its lazy! For now, just one concern, the second chart shows that there are now more stocks off their 52-week highs despite a nice rally over last 2 weeks.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Media & FMCG. With Realty, Infra and Pharma at the bottom.

Chart 4 Majority of indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -8.4% & -8.2%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is negative.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 13^th April 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.