Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Chart 1. Longer term trend model
based on weekly prices is in sell/exit mode and I am holding Liquidbees at the
moment.
Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA &
momentum has shifted to bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of
bonds vs Nifty. We even have a downward sloping moving average. Though the
sample size maybe small but those runaway bull markets have happened with Nifty/Bond
ratio above its MA and the slope of the MA also trending upwards.
Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Energy, FMCG
& Infra. With Metals and Media at the bottom.
Chart
4 2 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and only
3 of the sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA. One can see that
Nifty returns have generally been flattish to negative at such readings.
Chart
5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at
-16% & -12%.
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