Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Chart 1. Longer term trend model
based on weekly prices is in sell/exit mode and I am holding Liquidbees at the
moment.
Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA &
momentum has shifted to bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of bonds
vs Nifty.
Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Energy, FMCG
& IT. With Metals and Media at the bottom.
Chart
4 A U-turn on this chart, 0 of the broader indices are now above their respective
40-week MA, and only 3 of the sector indices are still above their respective
40-week MA. One can see that Nifty returns have generally been flattish to
negative at such readings.
Chart
5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is
at -16% & -12%.
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