Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Chart 1. Strategy 1 & 2 based on
Nifty TRI – Both are in exit mode. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am
holding a 10Y bond fund. Green line is up means buy mode and green line at 0
means exit mode. Portfolio is in a drawdown of 17% compared to Nifty ETF
drawdown of 30%.
Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA &
momentum has shifted to Bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds
vs Nifty.
Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in FMCG, IT
& Pharma. With Metals and Media at the bottom.
Chart
4 NONE of the broader indices is above their respective 40-week MA, and NONE
of the sector indices is above its respective 40-week MA. Forward returns on
Nifty have generally been negative to flattish at these readings.
Chart
5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is
at -37.5% & -37%.
