Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Chart 1. Since beginning of November
(all 3 strats live), the strategy portfolio has lost 3.31% with a max drawdown
of -5.84% whereas the Nifty ETF lost 7.25% and has a max drawdown of -10.68%.
Even if all stop losses were to hit tomorrow, the theoretical loss on the
portfolio is a further ~8% from here.
Strategy 1 & 2 based on Nifty TRI
data remain long and I am holding Niftybees. Bond strategy also is in buy mode
and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Green line is up means buy mode and green
line at 0 means exit mode.
Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA &
momentum has shifted to Bonds, both indicating longer term outperformance of Bonds
vs Nifty.
Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, IT
& Pharma. With Metals and Media at the bottom.
Chart
4 2 out of 10 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and just
1 sector index is above its respective 40-week MA. Forward returns on Nifty
have generally been negative to flattish at these readings.
Chart
5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is
at -18.9% & -16.6%.
