Updating our momentum model for the
week ending 27th Dec 2015.
Sunday 27 December 2015
Monday 21 December 2015
Technicals for week ending – 20th December 2015.
Nifty weekly
The primary longer term trend
still remains down for me as the index is below its 40 week moving average and
this moving average is sloping down. This similar setup is there on the
Bank-Nifty and broader indices – Nifty 100,200 & 500. On a
short term basis – looks like the index can bounce from here as we are close to
supports of the Aug-Sep lows (shaded area).
On a relative basis, the Nifty/Bond ratio is
still below its 40 and 10 week moving averages – indicating that bonds might be
a better performer.
Saturday 19 December 2015
Monday 14 December 2015
Monday 7 December 2015
Technicals for week ending – 6th December 2015.
Nifty weekly
Going through the weekly charts, for
a longer term uptrend - the Nifty and Bank-Nifty still have to overcome their
downward sloping trend-lines and a downward sloping 40 week moving average. The
Nifty 100, 200 & 500 indices still remain below their 40 week MA and are
exhibiting patterns similar to the Nifty. However, the relative strength ratio
of these indices is showing something interesting. All throughout this
downtrend the RS ratios of these broader market indices have not deteriorated
and in fact moved up – indicating that bulk of the selling has been restricted
to the Nifty 50 basket. Even the Midcap and Small cap RS ratios have been
inching higher.
On the fundamental side, as per
NSE data looks like earnings have picked up & earlier I had tweeted about a
rare occurrence in the Nifty which makes me think that we are near a short term
bottom in the index (charts below).
Overall, looks like we could be
near a bottom or maybe the Nifty index has bottomed out since the broader-market
RS ratios are healthy, we are seeing an uptick in earnings and from the
derivatives space the VIX index is calm and not indicative of any panic in the
market. On a personal note, I would still like to see the index overcome its 40
week MA for a confirmation of a longer term uptrend. Till then, good to keep
the above points in mind and monitor.
Charts : A rare occurrence &
earnings improvement
Sunday 6 December 2015
Monthly models update
Updated figures for the
equity-bond rotation models as of Nov’15 ending.
I first wrote about these here:
Buy & Rotate model has been
in Bonds since 30 April 2015
10 SMA model has been in Bonds
since 31 August 2015
Data & charts for Buy & Rotate model :
Data & charts for 10 SMA model:
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