Updating our momentum model for the week ending 29th
Nov 2015.
Monday 30 November 2015
Sunday 22 November 2015
Auto index : setting up for outperformance ?
So far this year the Auto index
has been flat and outperformed many other indices in terms of price performance.
Looking at the ratio charts, it looks like the Auto space could be setting up
for its next leg of outperformance.
The Auto/Nifty ratio chart is in
all time high territory and above its 40 week moving average. Even against various indices the Auto/sector
ratio charts are above their 40 week MA’s indicating outperformance against
many indices.
So, the ratio charts are giving
an indication that maybe the Auto space would be an outperformer in the year
2016, although from an absolute returns perspective,
would like to see the Auto index itself sustaining above its 40 week moving
average.
Monday 9 November 2015
Technicals for week ending – 8th November 2015
Nifty weekly
As I write this, the SGX Nifty is
tanking and the Nifty is about to open deep in the red. I have no clue what the
markets will do this week or next but from a longer term the trend still seems
to be down. Now I hate writing “as mentioned before” but yeah can’t help it for
now. We still have a dominant down-trend line on the Nifty and its major weightage
sector – Bank Nifty. To add more pain to the down-trend line, we have a
downward sloping 40 week MA.
Speaking of the broader market –
the Nifty 100,200 & 500 have similar structures to the Nifty and
Bank-Nifty. Hence, this tells me that the broader market too is showing a
down-trend at the moment and price improvement above the trend-line and a flattening
to upward sloping 40 week MA are the triggers that I am looking at for the
broader trend.
The Nifty/Bond ratio was in Bonds
since the start of the year !
Sunday 8 November 2015
Monthly models update
Updated figures for the
equity-bond rotation models as of Oct’15 ending.
I first wrote about these here:
Buy & Rotate model has been
in Bonds since 30 April 2015
10 SMA model has been in Bonds
since 31 August 2015
Data & charts for Buy & Rotate model:
Data & charts for 10 SMA model:
Monday 2 November 2015
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