Technicals for week ending – 15th December 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 No change in short term risks – a close below the 10080-10120 band and inability to move above would indicate weakness. Basic super-trend and 40-week MA are in buy mode and above the 9700 zones. I can’t predict worth a damn; my exit point will be a weekly close below the 40-week MA.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Energy.

Chart 4 Pharma index is below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -4% & -2.1%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is flat

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 15^th December 2017.

Technicals for week ending – 8th December 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 SAVED AGAIN from a close below the support band. No change in short term risks – a close below the 10080-10120 band and inability to move above would indicate weakness. Basic super-trend and 40-week MA are in buy mode and above the 9700 zones. I can’t predict worth a damn; my exit point will be a weekly close below the 40-week MA.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Energy.

Chart 4 Pharma index is below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -4% & -2.4%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is flat

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 8^th December 2017.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end November’17.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index in end January 2017

The Momentum model switched to Nifty total returns index in end February 2017

Stats:

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 1^st December 2017.

Technicals for week ending – 17th November 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 SAVED from a close below the support band. No change in short term risks – a close below the 10080-10120 band and inability to move above would indicate weakness. Basic super-trend and 40-week MA are in buy mode and near the 9700 zone. I do not want to be holding ETF’s under the 40-week MA. Most stocks seem to be hitting highs as only about 15% of the Nifty 500 stocks are more than 20% away from their 52 week highs.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix back in Realty & Metals. They are a bit slow to signal so keep in mind the general conditions.

Chart 4 Pharma index is below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -4.7% & -3.8%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is flat

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 17^th November 2017.

Technicals for week ending – 10th November 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 Nothing new to add here. Since there is no resistance, so no point trying to pick a turning point as of now. As for short term risks – a close below the 10080-10120 band and inability to move above would indicate weakness. Basic super-trend and 40-week MA are in buy mode and near the 9700 zone.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix back in Realty & Metals. Auto index has dropped a lot in relative rankings while IT has seen a marked improvement. They are a bit slow to signal so keep in mind the general conditions.

Chart 4 Pharma got walloped and closed below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -4.1% & -2.5%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is net long but notice the zig zag in net positions since July-August. 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 10^th November 2017.

Technicals for week ending – 3rd November 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 Another week and another all-time high close. Since there is no resistance, so no point trying to pick a turning point. As for short term risks – a close below the 10080-10120 band would indicate weakness. As for what is going on under the surface, well.. seems stocks have joined the bandwagon.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix back in Realty & Metals. Also, Realty index is closing at 6 year highs!. They are a bit slow to signal so keep in mind the general conditions.

Chart 4 All indices are now above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -2.4% & -0.2%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is net long & clients going overboard in long put options.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 3^rd November 2017.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end October’17.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index in end January 2017

The Momentum model switched to Nifty total returns index in end February 2017

Stats: 

Technicals for week ending – 27th October 2017.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

We had a rare development this week as the Nifty closed above its upper Bollinger band. This has happened 20 times since 2010. BUT 2014 looks like a big outlier due to the election rally & 2014 saw 10 instances of Nifty giving a weekly close above this band – which does sound like a outlier. Anyways, here are the results 1/3/6 months out from the signal date.

Chart 1 OK, back to good old support-resistance and a dumb moving average. The Nifty is sustaining above prior resistance and we have an upward sloping 40 week MA and the ATR based super-trend has also shifted higher. Both these are near important support zone of 9700. Under the surface, the damage seems to be spreading with almost 30% of the Nifty 500 stocks that are now more than 20% below their 52 week highs. I don’t have much data but the current period seems eerily similar to the early 2015 time period. What now? – Well, 2017 has been a record of sorts with every market going up! Even the Nikkei is pushing through levels not seen in almost 20 years. Despite the lacklustre data point above & the damage underneath I still maintain the positive bias – let the support break and price show some signs, then will think on risk-off terms.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Metals & Energy. They are a bit slow to signal so keep in mind the general conditions.

Chart 4 Pharma index is below its 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -2.7% & 0%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment are positive and rising.