Technicals for week ending – 27th April 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assesment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is long, (I uploaded an image of its past signals on twitter). Hence, I am holding on to my ETF. As for discretionary side, we have had 5 up weeks and now sitting at the unfilled gap resistance and near some "magical"  trend line ;) 

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Media & FMCG. With Banking, Metals and Pharma at the bottom.

Chart 4 Majority of indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -6.7% & -7.1%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is negative.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 27^th April 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

Technicals for week ending – 20th April 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assesment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is long, (I uploaded an image of its past signals on twitter). Hence, I am holding on to my ETF. As for the discretionary side, there is a lot of work needed to be done given that trendline and support zones (basically a sandwich here!) – PS: I don’t believe in trendlines and patterns much!

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Media & FMCG. With Banking, Energy and Pharma at the bottom.

Chart 4 Majority of indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -7.2% & -7.1%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is negative.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 20^th April 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

Technicals for week ending – 13th April 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assesment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. The ugly charts and data posted in the last few months turned around in the last few weeks & on 6^th my boring system switched to long, so riding the ETF. Seems like there was no point in posting those fancy subjective charts and data, LOL. Feeling better and better as I continue to monitor the system and execute like a robot. Past history shows just 1-3 trades a year, so its lazy! For now, just one concern, the second chart shows that there are now more stocks off their 52-week highs despite a nice rally over last 2 weeks.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Media & FMCG. With Realty, Infra and Pharma at the bottom.

Chart 4 Majority of indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -8.4% & -8.2%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is negative.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 13^th April 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.