Weekly Analysis – 13th September 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in buy mode and I am in Nifty-bees. Bond strategy is also in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund. Allocation and other stats/details in the chart below.

Note: Till March/April for the equities component I was using 2 different strategies but decided to stick to just 1 later on. Due to that the drawdown is a bit larger than if I was just using 1 equities strategy from the start.

For 1^st chart If Green line under the Nifty and Bond Indices charts is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in Autos, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 9 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 8 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

 

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -12% and -5%.

 

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 13^th September 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

 

 

 

 

Weekly Analysis – 06th September 2020

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Strategy based on Nifty TRI – is in buy mode and I am in Nifty-bees. Bond strategy is still in buy mode and I am holding a 10Y bond fund.

If Green line in the first chart is up means buy mode and green line at 0 means exit mode.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA. Indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength is in Autos, IT & Pharma. With Realty and Banks at the bottom.

Chart 4 9 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and 8 of the sector indices are above its respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is -14% and -3%.

 

 

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 06^th September 2020.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.