Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst,
these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives
from a longer term point of view.
Nifty Weekly
Chart 1. Longer term trend model
based on weekly prices is in sell/exit mode and I am holding Liquidbees at the
moment. However, I will no longer be following this model..it is now time to
retire this model and implement something new and evolve. Within the next 1 to 2 weeks
will be running 3 longer term systems – 2 different systems on Nifty and 1
system on 10-year bond index.
Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA &
momentum has shifted to Nifty, both indicating longer term outperformance of Nifty
vs Bonds. Though the sample size maybe small but those runaway bull markets
have happened with Nifty/Bond ratio above its MA and the slope of the MA also
trending upwards.
Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Energy, FMCG
& Infra. With Metals and Media at the bottom.
Chart
4 8 of the broader indices are above their respective 40-week MA, and now
6 of the sector indices are above their respective 40-week MA.
Chart
5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is
at -9.6% & -5.5%.
