Technicals for week ending – 26th January 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view (6-12 months).

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. For the short term, it looks a bit stretched with 2 consecutive weekly closes above the standard 20/2 Bollinger Bands. For more shorter-term risks, I am confident of drawing the support band near 10080-120 but that seems far off. For now, keeping an eye out on 10500 as short-term support. We are in all time high territory so basic logic and common sense says uptrend intact on longer time-frame. The index is still above its 40 week moving average and the slope of the average is also upwards.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT & Realty. With Auto and  Pharma at the bottom.

Chart 4 All indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -2.2% & -1.3%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is back to positive AND clients back to old habits of shorting the rally !

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 26^th January 2018.

Technicals for week ending – 19th January 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view (6-12 months).

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 Another week, another all time high. Sounding like a broken record LOL !. We are in all time high territory so basic logic and common sense says uptrend intact. The index is still above its 40 week moving average and the slope of the average is also upwards. The number of stocks from the Nifty 500 index that are trading more than 20% off their 52 week highs is just under 13% suggesting broad strength. As for shorter term risks, I am more confident of drawing the support band near 10080-120 but for keeping an eye out, also considering 10500 for now.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Metals. IT has made a comeback at rank 3 while Auto index has taken a tumble to rank 9.

Chart 4 All indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -2.9% & -1.7%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is flat to positive AND so is client flows !

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 19^th January 2018.

Technicals for week ending – 5th January 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1 STILL no change in short term risks, we had multiple tests of the 10080-10120 support band and it held out. Basic trend filter of 40 week MA is still indicative of a long bias. As for discretion, I am unsure of any resistance up here so still leaving the first trouble area at the support band of 10080-120.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is above its 40-week MA & momentum also favours Nifty index, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty & Metals.

Chart 4 All indices are above their 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -1.7% & -0.3%.

Chart 6 FII flows in Index futures segment is flat to positive AND so is client flows !

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 5^th January 2018.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end December’17.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty total returns index in end January 2017

The Momentum model switched to Nifty total returns index in end February 2017

Stats: