Technicals for week ending – 19th October 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is sitting in cash. I am holding liquidbees ETF now. The India 10 year bond total return index is still in an uptrend.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Bond index, indicating longer term outperformance for bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Pharma & FMCG. With Realty and Auto at the bottom.

Chart 4 Damage in other indices as most are below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -20.1% & -16%.

Chart 6 CLI flows in Index futures segment is positive and been holding positive for few months now.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 19^th October 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posted for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Technicals for week ending – 05th October 2018.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices triggered an exit on Friday’s close. It exits when Nifty spot closes the week below its 40 week moving average. I exited half my position before the policy announcement and rest after it. Since the price was way below the exit trigger I sold during market hours, if price would have been very close to the moving average then I would have acted on Monday morning based on the final closing. Even though this trade was closed at a tiny profit, but I gave back a lot in terms of open profit. I am OK with this since this fall was really fast, looking back at some previous exits – they were slow and took time so cant extrapolate that every exit would be like this. You win some, you lose some. On the intermarket signals- easy guess – Nifty TRI is below the 40 week MA & Bond TRI is above its MA. Past instances show tough times during this signal.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is BELOW its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Bond index, indicating longer term outperformance for bonds vs Nifty.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in IT, Pharma & FMCG. With Realty and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Damage in other indices as most are below their respective 40-week MA.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -20.3% & -17.2%.

Chart 6 CLI flows in Index futures segment is positive and been holding positive for few months now.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 05^th October 2018.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posted for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.