Technicals for week ending – 17th May 2019.

Note : This is not a recommendation and I am not a registered analyst, these are just data points and an assessment of the positives and negatives from a longer term point of view.

Nifty Weekly

Chart 1. Longer term trend model based on weekly prices is in buy mode and I am holding Niftybees.

Chart 2 Nifty total returns/10 year Bond index ratio is ABOVE its 40-week MA & momentum also now favours Nifty, indicating longer term outperformance for Nifty vs Bonds.

Chart 3 Longer term intermarket strength as per the RS matrix is in Realty, Banks & IT. With Metals and Media at the bottom.

Chart 4 Most of the broader as well as sector indices are BELOW their respective 40-week MA. Previous instances have seen weak equity market performance going forward.

Chart 5 Avg. & Median distance of all sectors from their 52-week closing high is at -15.1% & -11.7%.

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 17^rd May 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.

Monthly Update

Updated figures for the equity-bond rotation models as on end April’19.

Data set: Nifty Total Returns Index & S&P BSE India 10 Year Sovereign Bond Index

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes.

I first wrote about these here:

Sector Technical Analysis: Buy & Rotate

Sector Technical Analysis: The Simple strategy…

The Moving average model switched to Nifty Total Returns index in end March 2019

The Momentum model switched to Nifty Total Returns index in end March 2019

NO – This does NOT outperform every year – stop asking that!!

Stats:

Sector Momentum Update

Updating the short-term momentum model for the week ending 3^rd May 2019.

Note: This does not include commissions, slippage & taxes and I have no positions in this. Just posting for academic purpose. + We do not have any sector ETF’s.