Updating our momentum model for the
week ending 27th Dec 2015.
Sunday 27 December 2015
Monday 21 December 2015
Technicals for week ending – 20th December 2015.
Nifty weekly
The primary longer term trend
still remains down for me as the index is below its 40 week moving average and
this moving average is sloping down. This similar setup is there on the
Bank-Nifty and broader indices – Nifty 100,200 & 500. On a
short term basis – looks like the index can bounce from here as we are close to
supports of the Aug-Sep lows (shaded area).
On a relative basis, the Nifty/Bond ratio is
still below its 40 and 10 week moving averages – indicating that bonds might be
a better performer.
Saturday 19 December 2015
Monday 14 December 2015
Monday 7 December 2015
Technicals for week ending – 6th December 2015.
Nifty weekly
Going through the weekly charts, for
a longer term uptrend - the Nifty and Bank-Nifty still have to overcome their
downward sloping trend-lines and a downward sloping 40 week moving average. The
Nifty 100, 200 & 500 indices still remain below their 40 week MA and are
exhibiting patterns similar to the Nifty. However, the relative strength ratio
of these indices is showing something interesting. All throughout this
downtrend the RS ratios of these broader market indices have not deteriorated
and in fact moved up – indicating that bulk of the selling has been restricted
to the Nifty 50 basket. Even the Midcap and Small cap RS ratios have been
inching higher.
On the fundamental side, as per
NSE data looks like earnings have picked up & earlier I had tweeted about a
rare occurrence in the Nifty which makes me think that we are near a short term
bottom in the index (charts below).
Overall, looks like we could be
near a bottom or maybe the Nifty index has bottomed out since the broader-market
RS ratios are healthy, we are seeing an uptick in earnings and from the
derivatives space the VIX index is calm and not indicative of any panic in the
market. On a personal note, I would still like to see the index overcome its 40
week MA for a confirmation of a longer term uptrend. Till then, good to keep
the above points in mind and monitor.
Charts : A rare occurrence &
earnings improvement
Sunday 6 December 2015
Monthly models update
Updated figures for the
equity-bond rotation models as of Nov’15 ending.
I first wrote about these here:
Buy & Rotate model has been
in Bonds since 30 April 2015
10 SMA model has been in Bonds
since 31 August 2015
Data & charts for Buy & Rotate model :
Data & charts for 10 SMA model:
Monday 30 November 2015
Sunday 22 November 2015
Auto index : setting up for outperformance ?
So far this year the Auto index
has been flat and outperformed many other indices in terms of price performance.
Looking at the ratio charts, it looks like the Auto space could be setting up
for its next leg of outperformance.
The Auto/Nifty ratio chart is in
all time high territory and above its 40 week moving average. Even against various indices the Auto/sector
ratio charts are above their 40 week MA’s indicating outperformance against
many indices.
So, the ratio charts are giving
an indication that maybe the Auto space would be an outperformer in the year
2016, although from an absolute returns perspective,
would like to see the Auto index itself sustaining above its 40 week moving
average.
Monday 9 November 2015
Technicals for week ending – 8th November 2015
Nifty weekly
As I write this, the SGX Nifty is
tanking and the Nifty is about to open deep in the red. I have no clue what the
markets will do this week or next but from a longer term the trend still seems
to be down. Now I hate writing “as mentioned before” but yeah can’t help it for
now. We still have a dominant down-trend line on the Nifty and its major weightage
sector – Bank Nifty. To add more pain to the down-trend line, we have a
downward sloping 40 week MA.
Speaking of the broader market –
the Nifty 100,200 & 500 have similar structures to the Nifty and
Bank-Nifty. Hence, this tells me that the broader market too is showing a
down-trend at the moment and price improvement above the trend-line and a flattening
to upward sloping 40 week MA are the triggers that I am looking at for the
broader trend.
The Nifty/Bond ratio was in Bonds
since the start of the year !
Sunday 8 November 2015
Monthly models update
Updated figures for the
equity-bond rotation models as of Oct’15 ending.
I first wrote about these here:
Buy & Rotate model has been
in Bonds since 30 April 2015
10 SMA model has been in Bonds
since 31 August 2015
Data & charts for Buy & Rotate model:
Data & charts for 10 SMA model:
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