Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 25^th March 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model

Technicals for week ending – 20th March 2016.

Nifty Weekly

On a weekly timeframe the Nifty index managed to close around 7600 which is also a major resistance zone as can be seen in the below charts (red arrow). However, the Bank-Nifty and the Midcap indices have yet to give a close above their resistance zones, the small cap index is flattish and also close near its resistance. If these indices also manage to gain and close above their resistance zones, then we may see a sustained rally but for now this remains a key risk.

On the weekly relative strength charts (http://goo.gl/3MmshX) the broader indices RS charts are still below their 40-week MA’s and most are seeing downticks except the Bank index – indicating that the rally was driven by Nifty index stocks. We are seeing some improvement in sector relative strength – specially the 2 most beaten down sectors – Energy & Metals. The Nifty/Bond index has improved but still below its MA’s indicating a preference for bonds and even the 26-week rate of change between Nifty & bonds is showing an outperformance for bonds.   

On a shorter timeframe the bias remains positive as FII buying in index futures is around its highest levels for the year so far and on the daily timeframe the 14 period RSI is above 60. However, the key risk is the one mentioned previously and we need to sustain for few days above the resistance zones on Nifty as well as the Banking index for a confirmation for further bullishness.

Nifty weekly chart :

Bank Nifty weekly chart :

Nifty Midcap weekly chart :

Nifty Smallcap weekly chart :

Nifty/10 year bond ratio chart :

Indices above 40 week moving average :

Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 18^th March 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model

Technicals for week ending – 6th March 2016.

Nifty Weekly

Despite the strong move higher this week there is still a lot of work left to call a longer term uptrend and we will only get to know in hindsight if this was indeed "the bottom". First up, on the weekly relative strength charts (http://goo.gl/3MmshX) the broader indices RS charts are still below their 40-week MA’s but we are seeing some improvement in sector indices. The defensive sector RS charts remain above their 40-week MA’s and we are now seeing some improvement in the RS ratio of laggard sectors such as Energy & Metals. Second, all the major indices (Sector + Broader) are still below their 40-week MA’s. Lastly, the Nifty/Bond index has improved but still below its MA’s indicating a preference for bonds and even the 26-week rate of change between Nifty & bonds is showing a outperformance for bonds.  

On a shorter timeframe the Nifty & Bank-Nifty indices are now a tad below resistance zones (upper blue line). A close above these zones and we could see some more fierce upside moves.

Sector Momentum Model Update

Updating our momentum model for the week ending 6^th March 2016.

I first wrote about this model here Sector Technical Analysis: Sector Momentum Model