Taking a break from the usual weekly charts and data… as
everyone has witnessed, the past few weeks have seen the fastest and one of the
steepest declines in markets. Yes, even I am in the red and just to update the
weekly commentary – well, the 3 strategies – especially an allocation to bonds have
saved me and losses are less than half of what the Nifty index has gone
through.
Coming back to the topic, I have been a terrible futures
trader and ages ago had just completely stopped trading future or options. A
couple of months ago I started tinkering with the idea to take some futures
trades once in a while when an exciting opportunity presents itself – totally discretionary.
Took a couple days and decided on a loss limit for an idea and how many ideas
to pursue – still evolving but at a very lazy pace. Anyways, what happened
during the week of 9th to 13th March was my best ever in
futures/options trading. Though 1 part of it was a planned execution the other
2 – spur of the moment – I still can’t figure out if it was luck, skill or
was I just in a different zone all together.
Opportunity:
So back in December/Jan I came across the USD-INR chart,
stalked it for weeks. Was just focusing on the range and 1 or 2 indicators and
just had this feeling in my bones that this thing is gonna blow. February went
by, I didn’t have the courage to pull the trigger. Then around end of Feb, I
discussed it with my wife and we decided OK, we will risk only a certain amount
that does not affect us in a big way. So after weeks of stalking the USD-INR
and a go ahead from the wifey – here is how the events unfolded, I looked at
the chart on the night of 1st March and said wow, here it comes, she
gonna blow...... 2nd March morning – didn’t enter (pussy!). 2nd
March at Night – ah see it’s a red candle, might just go back into range. 3rd
March morning while sipping my coffee – balls to this, I have stalked this
trade idea for months now and I have the sign off from the ultimate risk
manager – aka the wife. I am taking this trade. Account funded with Rs. X and
the mental stop so that if it goes hay wire the X becomes 0.7X. Markets open,
trade done. Laptop closed and I go about my day.
Breaking the rules:
Now comes 12th March, the USD-INR trade is open.
Going per plan. Initial X is now become about 1.48X – I am excited! Now comes
the breaking the rule further part. I realise this is a weekly expiry day. We
are about to break 9800. My eyes come across the weekly 9700 put – for some
reason, god knows when I drew that support line at 9800 levels it was still
there saved on the chart and in minutes we were now below that zone. For 20-30
minutes I am contemplating and then in a spur of the moment I go – balls!,
everything is going to shit, its now below this zone I drew god knows when I do
not even remember! lets risk a part of the open profits from the USD-INR trade.
So, it was structured in such a way that if my options go to 0 and I close the
USD trade then initial X still becomes 1.33X at the end of the day. So with
that comfort - enter options. I am in the put now and then within minutes
everything collapses and the puts go ballistic. Then I look at time and say to
myself – you idiot – you are late for office! In another minute I see that the
initial X is now around 1.91X I close out both the trades. I am on top of the
world. Tell it to the wife and put a reminder to withdraw these proceeds back
to the bank first thing tomorrow morning!
Friday the 13th – The most interesting day.
So my wife is out of town. We are having a chat in the
morning and I tell her I am planning to withdraw the funds, It was a dream run,
lets get out now before I lose control and make some horrendous trades… and
then I tell her that it looks like we might hit a lower circuit today. More
talk and then call ends. Now, just a few minutes after the call I see a
whatsapp message from the wife saying “short the market” – I am like we will
see. Market opens and its pandemonium, within minutes it’s a lower circuit.
Wifey is also following the news and calls me after the circuit hits and asks “did
you short?” I was like no way, didn’t have the guts… of course I got a firing
from the wife saying first time ever she told you me take a trade, it went
right and I did not execute! Well, I was paralyzed. So now, we have almost an
hour till we re-open. In the meanwhile I make a coffee, think and I decide to
go long at the re-open (against the wife lol). I was like fine, we already have
some profits lets risk some of that and the swings going to be wild so its
going to be a wide stop loss here.
Market re-opens and jumps. Again, I am paralyzed for a minute
here, then from nowhere again the thought comes – balls! You had an hour in
which you plotted every scenario you could think of – put the money on the
line. Then at 10.22 AM I enter.. I just put in a buy order at market, did not
even see the bid-offers going on..in minutes I am up again, now the initial X
has become 2.22X. I feel like a genius, then I look at the watch and again say…
I am late for work. Close everything out and next day first thing I do is
withdraw all of it to the bank!
But still, the question lingers… was it my skill? Luck? Or just
that the 1st trade (USD) played out that it gave me a cushion to
take the other risks?... I do not know.
Cheers! Stay safe!
Oh yeah – the investment portfolio is obviously red and the
wife won’t ever let me forget it! :P
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